WS #10019

Multiple high-signal developments are converging in this window. First, the US-Iran deal is progressing toward formal signing on Friday, with tangible evidence: three Iranian oil tankers have passed the US blockade line in the Gulf of Oman, signaling confidence the blockade is effectively over. This is corroborated by the Joint Maritime Information Center downgrading the Strait of Hormuz threat level from 'severe' to 'substantial'. However, Israeli air strikes on Lebanon continue despite the deal, and Iran has warned that such strikes threaten the agreement. Second, the White House has allowed the Russian oil sanctions waiver to expire for the third time, with Trump stating the US is now 'in a position' to let it lapse as oil flows through Hormuz. This is a counter-signal to the oil glut narrative: while falling oil prices have been a theme, the removal of Russian crude from legal markets could tighten supply. Third, the ECB's Sleijpen indicated that another rate hike to 2.5% would still be within neutral range, suggesting further tightening ahead for Europe. Fourth, Salesforce announced the acquisition of AI customer support firm Fin for $3.6B, a significant consolidation play in enterprise AI. Fifth, Nvidia's Huang warned of an energy shortfall for AI, while Bernstein issued bullish views on Arm, AMD, and Intel on agentic AI boosting server CPU demand. Sixth, CarMax reported Q1 earnings but warned of persistent margin pressure, dragging Carvana lower in sympathy. Seventh, pending home sales surged 3.8% MoM vs 0.8% expected, a strong housing data point. The dominant narrative is de-escalation of the Iran conflict and its oil market implications, but with important nuances: the Russian sanctions waiver expiry and continued Israeli strikes introduce counter-signals.