WS #10020

The dominant narrative is the US-Iran deal progressing toward formal signing, with India's PM Modi confirming 'new speed and energy' in US relations and stressing the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Trump stated he is 'very close' on an India trade deal and that the Strait will 'immediately be opened.' However, the White House allowed the Russian oil sanctions waiver to expire for the third time, a counter-signal that could tighten supply despite falling oil prices. ECB's Sleijpen indicated another rate hike to 2.5% would still be within neutral range, suggesting further tightening. On the corporate front, Salesforce acquired AI customer support firm Fin for $3.6B, and Nvidia's Huang warned of an energy shortfall for AI. Pending home sales surged 3.8% MoM vs 0.8% expected, a strong housing data point. CarMax reported Q1 earnings with persistent margin pressure, dragging Carvana lower. The Fed's first meeting under Warsh is expected to hold rates steady but adopt a more hawkish tone. The overall narrative is de-escalation of the Iran conflict, but with important nuances: the Russian sanctions waiver expiry and continued Israeli strikes introduce counter-signals.