WS #10080

The dominant signal remains the US-Iran peace deal, now signed and with the full text released. Multiple sources (BBC, Al Jazeera) confirm the MOU signing, with Trump touting the deal. However, a new counter-signal has emerged: Iran's top negotiator Qalibaf stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions and Iran will charge for services in the strait. This dampens the bullish oil-supply thesis. Separately, a drone attack hit a Moscow oil refinery, with Reuters confirming flames and thick plumes of smoke in Moscow's southeastern Kapotnya district. This could escalate Russia-Ukraine tensions and impact energy markets. Apple CEO Tim Cook told WSJ that price increases are 'unavoidable' due to surging memory chip costs from the AI boom, which is bearish for AAPL and consumer demand. The Fed held rates at 3.75% as expected, with Goldman's Kaplan warning of a potential September hike if inflation persists. Ark Invest bought $18M of COIN and sold $29M of HOOD. The narrative arc on the US-Iran deal is STABLE but with a new counter-signal on Hormuz tolls. The Moscow drone attack is a new ESCALATING development.