WS #10081

The dominant signal in this window is the continued market impact of the US-Iran peace deal, with oil prices falling and Asian stocks rallying. Al Jazeera reports Brent crude fell 1.6% to $78.43, while the Nikkei 225 hit an all-time high (+1.9%) and US futures climbed (S&P 500 +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.3%). This corroborates the prior peace deal narrative and is STABLE. However, a new ESCALATING development is the second Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow's oil refinery in two days, confirmed by multiple sources (Riskline, Bluesky posts with video). This could re-escalate Russia-Ukraine tensions and support oil prices, partially offsetting the peace deal's bearish oil effect. Separately, Google Gemini co-lead Noam Shazeer left for OpenAI, a high-significance AI talent move that is bearish for GOOGL and bullish for OpenAI's IPO prospects. Jim Cramer named Intel his favorite stock citing AI CPU demand, a bullish signal for INTC. CME CEO plans to sue CFTC over Kalshi's perpetual futures approval, adding regulatory uncertainty for crypto markets. The Fed's Warsh abandoned forward guidance, with rate hike fears replacing cut expectations, but Fundstrat called the 2-year yield spike 'exaggerated' against the ceasefire trade. Ark Invest sold HOOD into strength and bought COIN and Block. The narrative arc on the US-Iran deal is STABLE, the Moscow drone attack is ESCALATING, and the AI talent war is a new ESCALATING theme.