WS #10088

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with multiple sources corroborating a second Ukrainian drone strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery within a week. Zelensky confirmed the strike, and videos show drones evading Russian air defenses. This is an escalation of the previous week's attack, increasing supply disruption risk for Russian refined products and potentially supporting oil prices. However, the US-Iran peace deal MOU signed by Trump and Iran's president is a counter-signal, as it aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease oil supply fears. Oil prices are hovering just above pre-war levels, with uncertainty about future direction. Asian markets (Nikkei, KOSPI) hit record highs on the Iran deal optimism, shrugging off the hawkish Fed. The Fed's Warsh debut spooked bonds and stocks (S&P 500 -1%), but the Iran deal is providing a risk-on counterbalance. Crypto ETFs saw $111M outflows as rate cut hopes faded. China's stock gauge is sliding toward a bear market. UK labour data held up better than expected ahead of BOE decision. Tesco sales growth slowed to 1.8% due to Middle East uncertainty. Intertek board to recommend £60/share EQT takeover. China lowered retail fuel prices. Swiss government cut GDP forecasts citing Middle East crisis.