WS #10089

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with multiple sources corroborating a second Ukrainian drone strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery within a week. Zelensky confirmed the strike, and videos show drones evading Russian air defenses. This is an escalation of the previous week's attack, increasing supply disruption risk for Russian refined products and potentially supporting oil prices. However, the US-Iran peace deal MOU signed by Trump and Iran's president is a counter-signal, as it aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease oil supply fears. Oil prices are sliding on the deal, with Brent around $77.8 and WTI at $74.8. The IEA chief Birol welcomed the deal but warned the 'vase is broken' and the Strait could shut again. The SNB held rates at 0% and flagged high uncertainty from the Middle East, while Indonesia hiked rates 25bps to 5.75%. Robinhood received three price-target hikes after layoffs, with HOOD up 10.7% to $107.75. The Fed's Warsh debut spooked bonds and stocks (S&P 500 -1%), but the Iran deal is providing a risk-on counterbalance. The narrative arc is: Ukraine-Russia conflict ESCALATING (second refinery strike), US-Iran deal DE-ESCALATING oil supply fears (counter-signal), and central banks cautious.