WS #10100

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed signing of the US-Iran interim peace deal, which is now being processed by markets as a major oil supply event. Multiple sources (Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Iran state media, and social media) corroborate that the deal has been signed electronically, with Iran agreeing to dilute enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bank of America immediately published a forecast that full reopening could push Brent to $82 this year and keep it in a $70-80 range for H2 2026. This is a clear counter-signal to the prior oil supply crisis narrative. Separately, Ukraine launched its largest-ever drone attack on Moscow, hitting the Moscow Oil Refinery and causing significant disruption, but this is being overshadowed by the Iran deal's supply implications. In equities, Intel surged on Trump's Apple partnership announcement, while Kroger crashed 10% on a triple miss. The Fed rate hike narrative is being revived by Ed Yardeni's comments that Warsh is committed to 2% inflation, which could mean hikes. The MAG7 are mixed: AMZN and MSFT show neutral/bullish signals, while TSLA is below 400 and AAPL rejecting 8d. The IEA warning of a potential oil surplus by 2027 adds a longer-term bearish note for energy.