WS #10101

The dominant signal in this window is the continued market processing of the US-Iran interim peace deal, with Bank of America publishing a forecast that full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent to $82 this year and keep it in a $70-80 range for H2 2026. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, AP, social media) and is being treated as a major oil supply event. Separately, Ukraine launched its largest-ever drone attack on Moscow, hitting the Moscow Oil Refinery for the second time this week, forcing airport suspensions and causing significant disruption, but this is being overshadowed by the Iran deal's supply implications. In equities, Take-Two Interactive rallied after announcing GTA 6 pre-orders begin June 25, while IBM is declining after Accenture narrowed guidance. The MAG7 show mixed signals: TSLA below 400, AAPL rejecting 8d, while GOOGL and AMZN hold support. The IEA warning of a potential oil surplus by 2027 adds a longer-term bearish note for energy. The US-Iran deal narrative is STABLE but being reinforced by the Bank of America forecast, while the Ukraine drone attack narrative is ESCALATING with a second strike on the same refinery.