WS #10127
The dominant signal in this window is the US-Iran peace deal (MoU signed by Trump, Pezeshkian, and Pakistan's PM) which is now in effect, with the US lifting its blockade and shipping returning to the Strait of Hormuz. However, this is immediately complicated by two counter-developments: (1) Iran announces plans to impose maritime fees in the Strait after a 60-day negotiation period and rejects a European naval escort mission, and (2) a large container ship runs aground, completely blocking the Strait just hours after reopening. Separately, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow, hitting the Kapotnya oil refinery, causing black smoke and airport disruptions, escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the corporate side, Intel surges on an Apple chip deal, Amazon plans to sell its AI chips (Trainium) to third parties, and a record $8.3 trillion in options notional exposure expires today. The Fed narrative remains stable with Kevin Warsh's Fed taking shape, while the Bank of England warns of higher costs from Middle East conflict despite the peace deal. Bitcoin mining economics have worsened per JPMorgan, with BTC trading below production cost.
Topics
Key developments
- US-Iran peace MoU takes effect; US lifts blockade, shipping returns to Strait of Hormuz
- Iran threatens maritime fees in Strait of Hormuz after 60-day period; container ship runs aground blocking Strait
- Ukraine launches largest drone attack on Moscow, hits oil refinery, disrupts flights
- Intel surges on Apple chip deal; Amazon plans to sell AI chips to third parties
- Record $8.3 trillion options notional exposure expires today
- JPMorgan says Bitcoin mining economics worsened, BTC below production cost
- Bank of England warns of higher costs from Middle East conflict despite peace deal
- Kevin Warsh's Fed starts to take shape; Brazil central bank rate cut spurs market angst