WS #10128

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran peace deal, which is now in effect with the US lifting its blockade and Iran's Supreme Leader endorsing direct talks. However, this is complicated by Iran's plan to impose maritime fees after 60 days and a rejected European naval escort mission. Separately, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow, hitting the Kapotnya oil refinery, causing black smoke and airport disruptions, escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the corporate side, Intel surges on an Apple chip deal, Amazon plans to sell its AI chips (Trainium) to third parties, and a record $8.3 trillion in options notional exposure expires today. The Fed narrative remains stable with Kevin Warsh's Fed taking shape, while the Bank of England warns of higher costs from Middle East conflict despite the peace deal. Bitcoin mining economics have worsened per JPMorgan, with BTC trading below production cost. Defense stocks are lower on peace deal expectations, while energy stocks slide on falling crude prices. The Strait of Hormuz traffic is returning, with 12 million barrels transiting overnight, but a container ship grounding earlier this week remains a risk.