WS #10272

The dominant theme is the Strait of Hormuz closure, which is ESCALATING. Iran's Supreme Leader advisor stated that if the deal remains on paper, Middle East energy flow will remain halted, reinforcing the closure. Multiple sources (BBC, Al Jazeera, NYT) also report that Israel and Hezbollah are still fighting despite ceasefires, adding to geopolitical risk. The Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian oil refineries continues, with a new attack on a Tyumen refinery, but this is a continuation of the existing narrative. A notable counter-signal is that CENTCOM reported 55 ships moved 17M barrels to stabilize oil prices, which could dampen the bullish oil thesis. Separately, a MAG7 carve-out: Intel (INTC) CEO noted the stock rose from $18.97 to $134 since March 2025, with Apple's production order as the first real test of the foundry turnaround, contradicting the broader tech narrative. Also, Trump said Anthropic is no longer a national security threat (Axios), which is positive for AI sector sentiment.