WS #10273

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz closure, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources (AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, NYT, Bloomberg, and various social media) report that Iran has closed the Strait again, citing Israeli ceasefire violations in Lebanon. Iran's Supreme Leader advisor stated that if the deal remains on paper, Middle East energy flow will remain halted. This reinforces the bullish oil thesis. A counter-signal is that CENTCOM reported 55 ships moved 17M barrels to stabilize oil prices, but the renewed closure likely overwhelms that. Separately, Trump's attack on Italy's PM Meloni is escalating into a diplomatic row, but has limited direct market impact. A MAG7 carve-out: Trump said Anthropic is no longer a national security threat (Axios), which is positive for AI sector sentiment. Also, AbbVie is reportedly in talks to buy a biotech for $10.9B for an eczema drug, which could move ABBV and the target. The Ukraine drone campaign against Russian oil refineries continues, with a new attack on a Moscow refinery, but this is a continuation of the existing narrative. The Bedford train crash is a tragic local event with no market impact. The rest is noise (sports, weather, crypto bets, routine dividend announcements).