WS #10356

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Multiple sources report that Iran has closed the strait, citing Israeli ceasefire violations in Lebanon, and that the Iranian delegation walked out of US negotiations in Switzerland after Trump threatened to 'hit Iran very hard again.' This directly contradicts the US Energy Secretary's earlier claim that 67 ships transited the strait yesterday with flows near pre-war levels. The closure is a major escalation that will likely spike oil prices and roil global markets. Separately, Trump confirmed UK PM Starmer's resignation, adding political uncertainty in the UK. The Strait of Hormuz narrative is clearly ESCALATING, with no counter-signals in this window.