WS #10357

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with multiple sources confirming Iran's closure of the strait and the Iranian delegation walking out of US negotiations in Switzerland after Trump threatened to 'hit Iran very hard again.' This directly contradicts the US Energy Secretary's earlier claim that 67 ships transited the strait yesterday with flows near pre-war levels. The closure is a major escalation that will likely spike oil prices and roil global markets. Separately, Trump confirmed UK PM Starmer's resignation, adding political uncertainty in the UK. The Strait of Hormuz narrative is clearly ESCALATING, with no counter-signals in this window. A potential counter-signal is a report from an Iranian source that talks have 'paused but not ended,' but this is outweighed by the walkout and closure reports. The aluminum rally losing steam as producers adapt to the Iran supply shock is a secondary development. Emerging-market earnings beating expectations for the first time in four years is a positive but less immediate signal.