WS #10387

The dominant theme remains US-Iran tensions, which are ESCALATING. President Trump threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel, and warned the US would take over the country if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. This comes as peace talks in Zurich continue but are clouded by the renewed threat. Oil prices advanced on the news, with WTI up ~2.4% and Brent up ~1.4%. A separate development: far-right millionaire Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia's presidential runoff, defeating leftist Iván Cepeda by a narrow margin. This marks a sharp rightward shift in Latin America and may impact US foreign policy and energy markets given Colombia's oil exports. The UK manufacturing sector faces a crisis with warnings of deindustrialization due to soaring energy costs, which could weigh on UK-exposed equities. No counter-signals to the US-Iran escalation were detected in this window.