WS #10388

The dominant theme remains US-Iran tensions, which are ESCALATING. Iranians walked out of peace talks following Trump's threat, and Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon. However, a counter-signal emerged: Trump signed a memorandum of understanding last week that started a de-escalation process, and oil continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran's claims of closure. This dampens the bearish oil supply thesis. Separately, a reported gas explosion at Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility could spike natural gas prices and affect global LNG markets. The Colombia election result (far-right Abelardo de la Espriella wins) is now confirmed with a narrow margin, reinforcing the rightward shift in Latin America. No new data on UK manufacturing crisis or Chicago shootings that would move markets. The NSA breach claim is unsubstantiated noise.