WS #10389

The dominant theme remains US-Iran tensions, which are STABLE/DE-ESCALATING. A key counter-signal emerged: Trump signed a memorandum of understanding last week that started a de-escalation process, and oil continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran's claims of closure. This dampens the bearish oil supply thesis. Separately, a reported gas explosion at Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility could spike natural gas prices and affect global LNG markets. The Colombia election result (far-right Abelardo de la Espriella wins) is now confirmed with a narrow margin, reinforcing the rightward shift in Latin America. Japan FinMin Katayama issued a verbal intervention warning on FX, which may support the yen and impact USD/JPY. The Chicago shootings and NSA breach claim are noise. No new data on UK manufacturing crisis. World Cup results (Japan 4-0 Tunisia, Belgium 0-0 Iran) are non-market noise.