WS #10400

The dominant signal in this window is the US-Iran peace deal, confirmed by multiple sources including a Bluesky post citing the FT and a GDELT video. This is a major de-escalation that counters the prevailing oil supply crisis narrative, likely pushing oil prices lower. Separately, China has imposed trade restrictions on US rare earth entities including MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, escalating trade tensions and directly impacting those stocks. The NYT reports oil prices falling on US-Iran progress, corroborating the de-escalation theme. SK Hynix overtakes Samsung as Korea's most valuable company, a significant tech sector development. The PBOC held LPR unchanged for 13th month, as expected. Ukraine drone strikes on Crimea oil infrastructure and a vessel fire add to geopolitical noise but are secondary to the Iran deal. Colombia's election shows Trump-endorsed De la Espriella with a slim lead, a regional political event with limited direct US market impact. The bird flu case in Australia is low significance. Overall, the narrative is shifting from energy supply shock to de-escalation, with trade tensions as a secondary bearish factor. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization odds remain active on Polymarket, but the Iran deal may reverse that.