WS #10401

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed US-Iran peace deal progress, with multiple high-credibility sources (Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, BBC, NYT, CoinDesk) reporting 'encouraging progress' and a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal. This is a major de-escalation that counters the prevailing oil supply crisis narrative, with Brent crude already sliding 1.7% to ~$79/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz normalization is a key second-order effect, with Polymarket odds likely shifting. Separately, an explosion at Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility (54 injured, 18 missing) introduces a new energy supply risk, partially offsetting the Iran deal's bearish oil impact. China's trade restrictions on US rare earth entities (MP Materials, USA Rare Earth) escalate trade tensions, directly impacting those stocks. The PBOC held LPR unchanged for 13th month, as expected. Tencent's AI assistant test and Chinese AI stock rally (Bloomberg) signal continued tech sector momentum. Tesla news: Musk lifted voting stake to nearly 20%, fueling merger speculation. The narrative arc is: US-Iran de-escalation is ESCALATING (more details emerging), Qatar LNG explosion is a new bearish energy supply shock, and China rare earth restrictions are a secondary bearish trade war factor.