WS #10417

The dominant narrative in this window is the ongoing de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, with multiple sources reporting progress in talks and oil beginning to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. A general oil-related license has been issued by the US to Iran, permitting the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin oil through August 21st, which is a significant counter-signal to the prior bearish energy thesis. However, a major incident at Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility has killed 13 and injured 54, with the energy minister confirming it was an accident and not sabotage, and that export capabilities are unaffected. This incident is unlikely to move global LNG markets materially given the quick confirmation of no supply disruption. Separately, China has added 10 US firms, including rare-earth miner MP Materials, to its export control list, escalating trade tensions and directly impacting rare-earth supply chains. UK political turmoil continues with Keir Starmer's resignation, but this is largely priced in. On the corporate front, Micron announced a strategic agreement with Anthropic, and AbbVie is acquiring Apogee Therapeutics for $10.9B. NVIDIA announced 35 new AI supercomputers across Europe and new Vera Rubin platform systems. Canadian CPI came in at 3.2% vs 3.0% forecast, a hot print that may influence rate expectations. The overall narrative arc is STABLE for US-Iran de-escalation, with the oil license acting as a counter-signal to prior supply disruption fears.