WS #10418

The dominant narrative in this window is the continued de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, with multiple sources confirming the issuance of a 60-day general oil license by the US Treasury, permitting Iranian oil production and sales through August 21st. This acts as a strong counter-signal to prior supply disruption fears. Additionally, Iran has agreed to IAEA inspections following talks in Switzerland, further supporting the de-escalation thesis. However, conflicting reports suggest talks remain fragile, with some sources indicating an Iranian walkout over Trump's Hormuz threats. The Qatar Ras Laffan LNG facility incident is confirmed as an accident with no impact on exports, limiting its market effect. On the corporate front, Micron surged 5.5% on a blockbuster Anthropic AI deal ahead of earnings, and Nvidia announced 35 new AI supercomputers in Europe and a new safety system for robotics. SpaceX disclosed over $100 billion in cash after its IPO. China added 10 US firms, including MP Materials, to its export control list, escalating trade tensions. UK political turmoil continues with Starmer's resignation, but this is largely priced in. The overall narrative arc is STABLE for US-Iran de-escalation, with the oil license acting as a key counter-signal.