WS #10617

The dominant signal in this window is the accelerating normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic, which is rapidly flooding oil markets with supply. US Energy Secretary Wright confirmed Iran will no longer be capable of blockading the strait, and Bloomberg and OilPrice.com report a surge in cargoes exiting the waterway. WTI crude is down 4.04% to $70.25 and Brent down 4.26% to $73.80, while VLCC tanker rates have surged to near $470,000/day as the market prices in the reopening. This development counters the previous bullish oil thesis and has second-order effects: bullish for airlines (lower fuel costs) and bearish for energy stocks. Separately, the US Senate passed a bill to limit military action against Iran, and Iran-US direct technical talks have been approved, further de-escalating geopolitical risk. On the tech side, Elon Musk lost trillionaire status as SpaceX shares fell 30% from peak amid a broad tech rout, and Bitcoin dropped to its lowest since October 2024. The housing bill saga (Trump refusing to sign) is noise as it was already covered in prior windows with no new data. The dominant narrative arc is ESCALATING oil supply normalization and DE-ESCALATING Iran risk.