WS #10618

The dominant narrative from the previous window—accelerating normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic and collapsing oil prices—continues to escalate. New data confirms the trend: Petrobras reported Buzios field output reaching 1.1 million bpd, adding to global supply. ECB's Zigman explicitly stated cheaper oil will help price stability, validating the disinflationary impulse. The Iran-US de-escalation is further confirmed by direct technical talks being approved, with Trump stating Iran is agreeing to everything. This counters the prior bullish oil thesis and reinforces bearish energy, bullish airlines/consumer. On the tech side, Nvidia's Huang reiterated national security priority over commercial opportunity, calling black market data centers a 'dead end'—this is a positive signal for NVDA as it reinforces its strategic moat and export control compliance. Qualcomm announced a $3.9B acquisition of Modular, signaling aggressive AI chip expansion. Sunrun surged on a Tesla deal for AI data center energy storage. Bitcoin broke $60,000 again per Bloomberg, though the headline notes 'biggest buyers wobble.' The housing bill saga remains noise with no new data—Trump's delay is already priced. The dominant narrative arc is ESCALATING oil supply normalization and DE-ESCALATING Iran risk, with second-order effects now being explicitly acknowledged by central bankers.