WS #12530

The dominant signal in this window is a significant escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with IRGC claiming a strike on Amazon data infrastructure in Bahrain, corroborated by Al Jazeera and multiple sources. This marks a sharp escalation from the previous stable narrative, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively shut and US gasoline prices above $4/gallon. In a counter-signal, Iran's interior minister traveled to Pakistan for talks, suggesting a potential diplomatic off-ramp. Separately, UK labour market data showed employment change at 147K vs 85K est., and public sector borrowing came in at 15.989B vs 18.0B poll, both positive surprises. Goldman Sachs warned oil could surge to $120/barrel if Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Jamie Dimon said he wouldn't buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices, citing geopolitical risks. Bitcoin hit a two-week high near $65,500, driven by a rebound in Asian semiconductor stocks. The UK Parliament began an inquiry into banking chokepoint for crypto businesses. Prologis announced a possible combination with SEGRO, but the meeting did not provide clarity. Magnolia Oil & Gas priced a $1.1B stock offering at $23.75 per share, sliding on the news. Unity unveiled Unity 7 with no breaking changes. Advanced Biomed stock surged after withdrawing SEC Form S-1. UK PM Burnham's first day saw a VAT cut on electricity bills, but this is a domestic UK story with limited US market impact.