WS #12531

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting fresh strikes and tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC claimed a strike on a US military complex in Jordan, while the US launched fresh strikes targeting Iranian capabilities to attack ships in the Strait. Goldman Sachs reiterated that if the Strait remains obstructed, Brent could exceed $120/barrel in Q4. Oil prices briefly retreated on ceasefire negotiation reports but remain elevated near $89. A counter-signal emerged: reports of efforts to negotiate another ceasefire, which caused a temporary pullback in crude. Separately, Jefferies lowered its IBM price target to $260 from $320, and Bill Ackman called META and AMZN 'cheap stocks'. Bitcoin ETFs posted a fifth straight day of inflows, supporting BTC above $65,500. The UK labour market data showed private sector wage growth at a six-year low, while government borrowing came in below expectations. The US-Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING, with active military exchanges and no diplomatic resolution in sight.