WS #12571

The dominant theme remains the escalating Middle East conflict, now with multiple corroborated developments that are intensifying oil supply risks. The Houthi blockade threat is escalating: multiple sources report at least four vessels making U-turns after warnings from Yemeni rebels, and India's biggest state refiners (Indian Oil Corp. and Mangalore Refinery) have suspended crude loadings from Iraq due to Strait of Hormuz security risks. Goldman Sachs warns oil could jump to $120 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Additionally, Kazakhstan has confirmed a halt to crude transfers at the CPC terminal on the Black Sea after a drone attack, with the shutdown potentially removing another 1 million barrels per day from the market. The geopolitical situation is further escalating with a Bloomberg report that UK PM Burnham has approved the use of UK bases for some US strikes on Iran, marking a significant escalation in Western military involvement. On the counter-signal side, the Netherlands announced sanctions on trade with illegal Israeli settlements, and France's Macron visited Syria, suggesting diplomatic channels remain active. In tech, semiconductor stocks are rebounding strongly: Micron and Sandisk up ~12%, Applied Materials and Marvell up ~8%, driven by TSMC price hike reports and AI demand. Google introduced Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber, a cheaper AI security model. A $4M whale bought AMD $780 calls. Intel and Fortinet are collaborating on a new security processor. Bitcoin hit $66,000 on Clarity Act hopes. The US froze >$1B in Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota. Overall, the geopolitical situation is ESCALATING with oil supply risks, while tech has positive catalysts.