WS #12572

The dominant theme remains the escalating Middle East conflict, with multiple corroborated developments intensifying oil supply risks. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively at a standstill, with shipping data showing near-zero traffic. Goldman Sachs warns oil could jump to $120/barrel if the Strait remains disrupted. Kazakhstan confirmed a halt to crude transfers at the CPC terminal after a drone attack, potentially removing another 1 million bpd. The geopolitical situation is further escalating with UK PM Burnham approving the use of UK bases for some US strikes on Iran, and Trump stating the US will strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain 'very heavily.' On the counter-signal side, Trump also said he's open to talks with Hezbollah and vowed to help Lebanon, and directed his administration to allow US airlines to fly directly to Lebanon. Iraq's oil minister said agreements with US companies will add significant production capacity, and total value of deals signed with US companies is estimated at $200 billion. The Houthi threat is widening, with AP reporting a new threat could put another trade chokepoint at risk. In tech, semiconductor stocks are rebounding strongly on TSMC price hike reports, with Micron surging 13.4%. Google is pitching its TPU chips to neocloud providers built on Nvidia GPUs. Apple will launch an 'upgrade' leasing program with Klarna on July 28. Tesla earnings are due Wednesday with options implying a 5.91% move. Bitcoin is pressing higher near $66,300 on CLARITY Act optimism. The US froze over $1B in Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota. Overall, the geopolitical situation is ESCALATING with oil supply risks, while tech has positive catalysts ahead of earnings.