WS #12666

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran military escalation, which is now in its 13th consecutive night of US strikes on Iran, with Iran striking US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude topping $100 intraday before settling at $97.44 (-3.23% on the day), while WTI closed at $89.31. Rapidan Energy Group forecasts Brent to hover around $100 through year-end. The escalation is expanding: Houthis report Saudi airstrikes on Hodeidah port, and eyewitnesses confirm multiple strikes on Hodeidah. Bahrain and Kuwait reportedly launched their first-ever direct airstrikes on Iranian military sites. Oman is mediating with Tehran on the Strait of Hormuz. US intelligence assesses Iran's new Supreme Leader is pursuing miniaturized thermonuclear warheads. The White House lowered the American death toll to zero, stating 'we are not in a war.' Meanwhile, a separate geopolitical development: Paramount agreed to delay its merger with Warner Bros. Discovery until next June while a judge considers a state lawsuit to block the deal. This is corroborated by multiple sources (NYT, NBC, Reuters). On the macro front, bond market anxiety is growing over AI capex budgets, with credit spreads widening for Google, Amazon, and Meta. The Russell 1000 Value index is beating the Nasdaq 100 by ~950 bps in July (+2.4% vs -7.1%). Semiconductors are under severe pressure: INTC -7.9%, MU -6.9%, AMD -3.2%, while AAPL stands out +3.5%. Qualcomm (QCOM) notified customers of double-digit price increases due to rising costs, and closed below its 200-day moving average. A dark pool alert shows $840M in SMH (semiconductor ETF) institutional order. The US-Iran conflict is escalating, with no counter-signals or de-escalation in this window. The Paramount-WBD merger delay is a new development with medium significance for media sector. The AI capex anxiety and semiconductor selloff are intensifying, with AAPL as a notable outlier.