WS #12667

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran military escalation, now in its 13th consecutive night of US strikes on Iran, with Iran striking US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. Oil prices remain elevated but pulled back today: Brent crude closed at $97.44 (-3.23%), WTI at $89.31. Rapidan Energy Group forecasts Brent to hover around $100 through year-end. The conflict is expanding: Saudi airstrikes hit Hodeidah port in Yemen, confirmed by multiple sources (Houthi-affiliated Al-Masirah TV, eyewitnesses, Reuters). Oman is mediating with Tehran on the Strait of Hormuz. The White House lowered the American death toll to zero, stating 'we are not in a war.' This escalation continues with no de-escalation signals. Separately, Paramount agreed to delay its merger with Warner Bros. Discovery until next June while a judge considers a state lawsuit to block the deal, corroborated by multiple sources (NBC, Reuters, NYT). On the macro front, bond market anxiety over AI capex budgets persists, with credit spreads widening for Google, Amazon, and Meta. The Russell 1000 Value index is beating the Nasdaq 100 by ~950 bps in July (+2.4% vs -7.1%). Semiconductors are under severe pressure: INTC -7.9%, MU -6.9%, AMD -3.2%, while AAPL stands out +3.5%. Qualcomm (QCOM) notified customers of double-digit price increases due to rising costs, and closed below its 200-day moving average. A dark pool alert shows $840M in SMH (semiconductor ETF) institutional order. Tesla suffered its worst week since 2022, down 18% to $313.03, after weak earnings and negative cash flow. The US-Iran conflict is escalating, with no counter-signals. The Paramount-WBD merger delay is a new development with medium significance for media sector. The AI capex anxiety and semiconductor selloff are intensifying, with AAPL as a notable outlier.