WS #12682

The dominant signal in this window is the US imposition of new 10%-12.5% tariffs on 60 trading partners, effective immediately, replacing an expiring levy. This is corroborated by BBC, GDELT, and multiple news outlets. The tariffs are justified on forced labor grounds but analysts view them as a continuation of Trump's trade war. Separately, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.1%, adding to macro headwinds. On the geopolitical front, Trump declared the interim agreement with Iran 'over' after Tehran attacked US bases, and US forces disabled a tanker in the Gulf of Oman, escalating tensions. Oil prices eased from $100 but remain elevated. SpaceX's Starship test flight suffered a booster failure, pressuring SPCX stock. Paramount agreed to delay its WBD merger until after a trial, a counter-signal to the merger thesis. The India-specific tariff of 10% is lower than the proposed 12.5%, providing a slight offset for Indian exporters but still negative. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on trade and Iran tensions, with the IMF cut adding a bearish macro layer.