WS #12683

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran tensions, with Trump stating the US might reimpose a blockade on Iran and the Strait, and that 28 Iranian boats were taken out overnight, with more possible strikes. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, GDELT, Bluesky). Oil prices remain elevated, with Las Vegas gas prices jumping 14 cents in a week to $4.72/gallon, and analysts warning of potential $5/gallon. The Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to impact oil markets. Separately, the new US tariffs (10%-12.5% on 60 trading partners) took effect, facing legal challenges from small businesses and the Liberty Justice Center. The tariffs are estimated to raise $105B/year vs $1.7T from the struck-down regime, a gap of $825B. India secured a lower 10% rate. On the corporate front, Apple surged 3.53% on analyst upgrades and China AI approval, ahead of earnings July 30. Anthropic signed supply deals with Samsung and SK Hynix. Boring Company is in talks to raise $4B at a $20B valuation. Paramount agreed to delay its WBD merger until June 2027 or after trial, a counter-signal to the merger thesis. SpaceX Starship completed its 13th test flight, releasing Starlink satellites, but stock fell 3% and is down 25% in a month. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on Iran tensions, with oil prices and geopolitical risk rising, while trade war uncertainty persists with new tariffs and legal challenges. The tech sector saw mixed performance with Nasdaq down 0.64% on the week, pressured by AI capex concerns and geopolitical headwinds.