WS #12684

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran tensions, with multiple sources reporting continued military strikes and the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Oil prices remain elevated, with WTI closing at $89.31 (-3.12% on profit-taking) but up 8.27% for the week, and Brent at $96.78 (-3.88%) but up nearly 10% for the week. The Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi oil tankers, and a Saudi-led coalition attacked Yemen's Hodeida. A new US intelligence assessment indicates that continuing military strikes against Iran are unlikely to force Tehran to change its negotiating stance, portraying an 'indefinite limbo between peace and war.' Shipping firms are offering massive bonuses for Strait of Hormuz crossings, and the US disabled a merchant vessel attempting to breach the blockade of Iranian ports. The US and UK are planning a high-level London conference to form an international coalition to protect commercial shipping through the Strait. Separately, Trump threatened the EU with steep tariffs after Brussels fined Google $1bn, and new US tariffs (10%-12.5%) on 60 trading partners took effect, facing legal challenges from small businesses. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.7%, the highest of Trump's term, complicating his plans to keep costs affordable. On the corporate front, IBM rose 3.65% on AI darling narrative, but the Nasdaq 100 tumbled 1.15% on oil spike and AI jitters. Paramount agreed to delay its WBD merger until June 2027 or after trial, a counter-signal to the merger thesis. Nvidia announced $1B investment in Naver AI datacenter in South Korea and partnership with SK Group for 2+ GW of AI datacenters. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on Iran tensions, with oil prices and geopolitical risk rising, while trade war uncertainty persists with new tariffs and legal challenges. The tech sector saw mixed performance with Nasdaq down on the week, pressured by AI capex concerns and geopolitical headwinds.