WS #12754

The dominant theme this window is the continued de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with multiple high-significance sources confirming a US operational pause and Iran's conditional halt. Vice President Vance and Joint Chiefs Chairman Caine warned Trump against wider war, citing depleted munitions stockpiles, and US Central Command did not announce new strikes for two consecutive nights. This counters the previous escalation thesis and is a major counter-signal for oil prices and risk assets. However, the war has broadened geographically: Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, and a tanker mine strike in the Strait of Hormuz confirm ongoing disruption. Iran's army warned the war would expand further if US attacks restart, and oil prices remain elevated above $100/bbl. Separately, Intel posted its fastest revenue growth in 15 years, with sales up 25% to $16.1B, beating estimates, driven by data center and AI chip demand. DeepSeek is said to pause its new funding round as IPO plans advance, a notable AI sector signal. Shein revealed key financials ahead of its Hong Kong IPO, with net income of $2.064B on $41.8B revenue. The US imposed 10% and 12.5% tariffs on 60 countries under Section 301, which could impact trade flows. European wildfires have forced over 250,000 people to evacuate, adding to economic costs. Overall, the Iran de-escalation counter-signal should dampen oil-driven inflation fears and support equities, but the Houthi attacks and Hormuz mine strike keep energy risk elevated.