WS #12755

The dominant theme this window is the continued de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with a second consecutive night of no US strikes and confirmed diplomatic progress between Iran and Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This counters the previous escalation thesis and is a major counter-signal for oil prices and risk assets. However, the conflict has broadened geographically: Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu are confirmed by satellite imagery, and a tanker mine strike in the Strait of Hormuz occurred, though Iran-Oman talks are progressing. Oil prices remain elevated above $100/bbl but the diplomatic pause suggests potential downside. Separately, Intel posted its fastest revenue growth in 15 years, with sales up 25% to $16.1B, beating estimates, driven by data center and AI chip demand. DeepSeek is said to pause its new funding round as IPO plans advance, a notable AI sector signal. Shein revealed key financials ahead of its Hong Kong IPO, with net income of $2.064B on $41.8B revenue. The US imposed 10% and 12.5% tariffs on 60 countries under Section 301, which could impact trade flows. European wildfires have forced over 250,000 people to evacuate, adding to economic costs. Overall, the Iran de-escalation counter-signal should dampen oil-driven inflation fears and support equities, but the Houthi attacks and Hormuz mine strike keep energy risk elevated.