WS #12775

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, but this window contains a significant de-escalation signal: the US has paused its bombing campaign on Iran after nearly two weeks, with Axios reporting that CENTCOM chief Admiral Brad Cooper recommended the halt due to 'reached limits of effectiveness.' This is corroborated by multiple sources (CNN, Axios, ANSA) and represents a material shift from the previous escalation trajectory. However, the situation remains fluid with Iran's FM accusing Ukraine of attacking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, and Pasdaran forcing four ships to change course in Hormuz. The de-escalation counter-signal dampens the bearish oil/geopolitical thesis, but the Hormuz disruption and new Ukraine-Iran tension prevent a full risk-off unwind. Separately, the earnings calendar for the week ahead features mega-cap tech (MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN) which could drive sector rotation. The AI capex debate continues to pressure growth stocks, with Oracle's downgrade and Alphabet's sell-off highlighting investor concerns about free cash flow compression. The new US tariffs on 60 countries (10-12.5%) are now in effect, adding to macro headwinds but are largely priced in.