WS #12776

The dominant narrative this window is a significant de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources (Axios, ANSA, GDELT) reporting that CENTCOM chief Admiral Brad Cooper recommended halting bombing raids on Iran due to 'reached limits of effectiveness,' and that this was the second consecutive night without US strikes. This is corroborated by reports that Iran has suspended retaliatory attacks and that diplomatic channels are reopening. However, the situation remains complex: Iran's FM accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, and Pasdaran forces fired on four ships in the Strait of Hormuz, preventing a full risk-off unwind. Oil prices settled at $96.78/bbl (Brent), down ~4% on the day but still up ~10% for the week, reflecting the precarious balance. Separately, the mega-cap tech earnings week begins, with MSFT, META, AAPL, and AMZN reporting. The AI capex debate continues to pressure growth stocks, with Oracle's downgrade and Alphabet's sell-off highlighting investor concerns about free cash flow compression. The new US tariffs on 60 countries (10-12.5%) are now in effect, adding to macro headwinds but are largely priced in. Bitcoin ETFs saw $225M outflow, pushing BTC to ~$63,900, while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 27 (fear).