WS #12790

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting that US strikes on Iran have been paused and new negotiations are underway. This has triggered a significant drop in oil prices (Brent -5%, US oil -8%+), a rally in equity futures (S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.4%), and a flight to safety in Treasuries (10Y futures +10 ticks, 30Y +19 ticks). This directly counters the previous escalation narrative and the prevailing thesis of sustained energy supply disruption. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING on the Iran conflict, with oil prices and risk assets reacting sharply. Separately, the US Energy Department issued an emergency order for the power grid across 17 states due to extreme heat, which could impact energy stocks. A grain carrier sank in the Black Sea following a Russian attack, and Romania shot down a suspected Russian drone for the third time in three days, escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions. The week ahead features major central bank decisions (FOMC, BoE, BoJ) and key US data (PCE, GDP), creating significant cross-asset risk. The Iran ceasefire development is the highest-signal item, as it reverses the prior macro thesis of sustained oil supply risk and geopolitical instability.