WS #12791

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed de-escalation of US-Iran hostilities, with multiple sources reporting that US strikes on Iran have been paused and negotiations are underway. This has triggered a sharp drop in oil prices (Brent -5.24% to $86.8, US oil -8%+), a rally in equity futures (S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.4%, Dow +0.6%), and a flight to safety in Treasuries (10Y futures +10 ticks, 30Y +19 ticks). The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING on the Iran conflict, directly countering the previous thesis of sustained energy supply disruption. Separately, Ukraine struck an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea, adding a new dimension to the conflict, but the overall pause in US-Iran strikes remains the primary market driver. The week ahead features critical events: FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, and earnings from META, MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN, which will test the AI spending narrative after Alphabet's disappointing results. The Iran ceasefire development is the highest-signal item, as it reverses the prior macro thesis of sustained oil supply risk and geopolitical instability.