WS #12800

The dominant narrative is a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with the US pausing strikes and Iran halting retaliation, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices (Brent down ~5% to $86.8, WTI below $85). This counters the prior bullish oil thesis and provides a tailwind for equities, particularly airlines and consumer stocks. However, the pause is fragile: CENTCOM advised strikes had limited effectiveness, and Houthi attacks on Saudi targets persist, keeping supply risks alive. Separately, Nvidia is in talks to guarantee $250B in OpenAI data center financing, per WSJ and multiple sources, reinforcing the AI infrastructure buildout narrative and supporting NVDA. Japan PM Takaichi's approval rating slid to 57% as inflation bites, and she signaled readiness to cushion economic blow from the Middle East conflict, while the BOJ retains independence on monetary policy. Bank Indonesia's governor Perry Warjiyo resigned, with Destry Damayanti appointed interim, adding policy uncertainty in Indonesia. The Fed rate hike odds remain elevated at 38%, with Apple, Amazon, and Meta earnings due this week. The macro picture is a tug-of-war between geopolitical de-escalation (bearish oil, bullish equities) and persistent inflation/rate hike risks (bearish growth stocks).