WS #12801

The dominant narrative is a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with both sides halting attacks over the weekend, leading to a sharp 5-6% drop in oil prices (Brent ~$91, WTI ~$84). This counters the prior bullish oil thesis and provides a tailwind for equities, particularly airlines and consumer stocks. However, the pause is fragile: Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea oil installations persist, and a tanker hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping supply risks alive. Separately, Nvidia is in talks to guarantee $250B in OpenAI data center financing, per WSJ and multiple sources, reinforcing the AI infrastructure buildout narrative and supporting NVDA. Singapore's central bank tightened policy further on Monday, bracing for inflationary pressures from Middle East tensions. Bank Indonesia's governor Perry Warjiyo resigned, with Destry Damayanti appointed interim, adding policy uncertainty in Indonesia. The Fed rate hike odds remain elevated at ~33%, with Apple, Amazon, and Meta earnings due this week. The macro picture is a tug-of-war between geopolitical de-escalation (bearish oil, bullish equities) and persistent inflation/rate hike risks (bearish growth stocks).