WS #12819

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict pause, which is driving a broad risk-on rally in premarket trading. Oil prices are falling sharply (down ~6%) as the US pauses strikes on Iran for a third night, with Tehran also pausing retaliatory attacks on US allies. However, Iran's foreign ministry has denied any ceasefire or negotiations, introducing uncertainty. The Pentagon updated casualty figures to 18 US troops killed and 624 wounded since the war began. Separately, Nvidia is reportedly working on AI infrastructure deals potentially worth over $750 billion, including a $250B OpenAI backstop, which supports the AI infrastructure thesis. Apple is approaching all-time highs ahead of earnings, with strong options activity. Rocket Lab won a $266M Space Force contract, its largest ever. In crypto, Storj Labs filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, sending STORJ down 20%, while Bitcoin ETFs saw $465M in outflows over two days. European wildfires continue to rage, but with limited direct market impact. The overall market sentiment is cautiously bullish on the Iran pause, but the denial of a ceasefire keeps geopolitical risk elevated.