WS #12820

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict pause, which is driving a broad risk-on rally in premarket trading. Oil prices are falling sharply (down ~6%) as the US pauses strikes on Iran for a third night, with Tehran also pausing retaliatory attacks on US allies. However, Iran's foreign ministry has denied any ceasefire or negotiations, introducing uncertainty. The Pentagon updated casualty figures to 18 US troops killed and 624 wounded since the war began. Separately, Nvidia is reportedly working on AI infrastructure deals potentially worth over $750 billion, including a $250B OpenAI backstop, which supports the AI infrastructure thesis. Apple is approaching all-time highs ahead of earnings, with strong options activity. Rocket Lab won a $266M Space Force contract, its largest ever. In crypto, Storj Labs filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, sending STORJ down 20%, while Bitcoin ETFs saw $465M in outflows over two days. European wildfires continue to rage, but with limited direct market impact. The overall market sentiment is cautiously bullish on the Iran pause, but the denial of a ceasefire keeps geopolitical risk elevated. New developments in this window include: Saudi Arabia intercepting drones from Iraq targeting oil facilities, escalating regional tensions despite the US-Iran pause. Nvidia and Microsoft launched an open AI security alliance without OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic, signaling a strategic shift in AI security. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) bought back $25M worth of STRK shares. Circle acquired IBM's blockchain patent portfolio. Freenome and Abbott received FDA approval for a blood-based colorectal cancer screening test. Rezolve AI reported preliminary H1 revenue of ~$127M, nearly 20x YoY. The Fed meeting this week is a key event, with Polymarket showing a 34% chance of a rate hike. Bitcoin options traders have reduced downside hedges, indicating expectations of a calm week. The oil selloff may be temporary as shipping disruptions persist.