WS #12867

The dominant macro narrative remains the US-Iran hold-fire entering its third day, with Al Jazeera and AP reporting mediators (Qatar, Pakistan) working to bridge gaps. This de-escalation is a counter-signal to the oil supply disruption thesis, and oil prices are slumping (CNA). However, Iran-backed drone strikes on Kurdish targets in Iraq and continued Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure (multiple sources) keep the risk of escalation alive. The US-Iran ceasefire narrative is STABLE but fragile. Separately, Nvidia's potential $250B guarantee for an OpenAI data center lease (Al Jazeera, MarketWatch) is reviving AI spending concerns, with MarketWatch warning of a 'spooky tech-bubble habit' and FT noting Big Tech credit risks rising sharply. This directly contradicts the prior narrative that Nvidia's AI spending concerns were easing. Apple regained the world's most valuable company title from Nvidia (CNBC), as Nvidia fell 5% on AI spending fears. Apple's reluctance to spend heavily on AI capex is being rewarded. Also notable: Citadel Securities sees a surprise Fed rate hike from Warsch (Bloomberg), a hawkish signal that could pressure growth stocks. CME's 24/7 gold futures debut met strong demand (Bloomberg), and China's gold stockpile could surpass US within five years (BMO).