WS #12868

The dominant macro narrative remains the fragile US-Iran hold-fire, but new data points show escalation risks: Iran conducted drone strikes on Kurdish targets in Erbil, Iraq, and Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure continue, with Bab el-Mandeb traffic dropping to 11 vessels. However, Kazakhstan restarted CPC oil exports after a week-long Black Sea shutdown, providing a partial supply relief. Oil prices are slumping sharply (WTI -7.5%, Brent -9.14%), reflecting the de-escalation thesis and demand concerns. The Citadel Securities call for a surprise Fed rate hike this week (Bloomberg, corroborated by multiple sources) is a major hawkish signal that could pressure growth stocks and tech. BlackRock raised $12.5B in debt for a Meta data center (Bloomberg, multiple sources), and MarketWatch warns of AI-related bond cracks, reviving AI spending concerns. Nucor beat quarterly results on strong pricing and demand (Investing.com), a positive for industrials. The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to allow mail-in voting restrictions (Al Jazeera, NYT, AP), a political development with limited direct market impact. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared humanity is in the 'singularity' (Bluesky), a notable AI narrative signal. The US-Iran ceasefire narrative is STABLE but fragile, with the Fed rate hike surprise being the most actionable new development.