WS #12931

The dominant theme in this window is a sharp de-escalation in Middle East tensions, driving a collapse in oil prices and a rotation out of AI/semiconductor stocks into defensive names like Apple. Brent crude has fallen below $84, WTI below $80, as OPEC+ prepares to halt production increases and US-Iran talks progress. The oil crash is a counter-signal to the war premium that had built up, and is bearish for energy stocks but bullish for consumer discretionary and airlines. Simultaneously, the AI chip trade is cracking: South Korea's KOSPI volatility hit an all-time high, and US semiconductor stocks are following lower. Apple reached a $5 trillion market cap temporarily, benefiting from its conservative AI spending approach, while Nvidia and other AI-exposed names sell off. The FOMC decision tomorrow is in focus, with markets pricing in a hold but watching for hawkish dissent. Boeing reported improved cash flow and raised 737 production targets, sending shares up 5%. Incyte beat earnings and raised guidance, hitting a 52-week high. Netflix is recovering from 52-week lows. SpaceX stock continues to slide, down nearly 50% from its IPO peak, with a lockup expiration looming. Key developments include: (1) Oil price collapse: Brent -5% to $83.90, WTI -4.9% to $78.54, driven by OPEC+ plan to halt output increases and US-Iran ceasefire progress. This is a counter-signal to the war premium, bullish for airlines and consumer discretionary, bearish for energy. (2) Semiconductor selloff intensifies: SOX enters bear market, down 21% from peak. Micron, SK Hynix, AMD, and Nvidia all falling. Nvidia's $250B guarantee for OpenAI raises balance sheet concerns. (3) Boeing Q2: Revenue +10.8% to $46.8B, operating cash flow positive at $1.185B, raises 737 production to 47/month, shares +5%. (4) Incyte Q2 beat: Revenue $1.67B, EPS $3.09, raises guidance, stock hits 52-week high. (5) SpaceX: $1.5T in combined Tesla/SpaceX market cap erased, lockup expiration next week could add selling pressure. (6) Apple launches iPhone leasing program 'Upgrade' at $17.99/month, potentially boosting unit sales ahead of Q3 earnings. (7) US to ban imports of Chinese robots and power inverters, impacting robotics and solar stocks. (8) Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tanker and Aramco refinery add supply risk but are being overshadowed by ceasefire hopes.