WS #12932

The dominant theme in this window is a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions, directly contradicting the de-escalation narrative from the previous cycle. Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities have caused Saudi Aramco to shut down its 400,000 bpd Jazan refinery, and a separate Houthi strike on a Saudi oil tanker was reported. This is a major counter-signal to the prior oil price collapse thesis. Simultaneously, a magnitude-7.1 earthquake struck Japan's Kumamoto prefecture, trapping people in a mall and causing TSMC, Sony, and Fujifilm to evacuate plants, which could disrupt semiconductor supply chains. The AI capex debate intensifies: Google raised its spending estimate to $205B, and OpenAI is in talks with Nvidia for a $250B backstop for a data center campus, while Michael Burry increased bearish AI bets. The Verge notes AI spending is finally making Wall Street nervous. The US FCC banned imports of Chinese robots and power inverters, a new trade war front. Bank Indonesia's governor resigned, sending the rupiah and stocks lower. Japan's core CPI held at 2.7%, keeping BOJ rate hike bets alive. The previous cycle's oil crash and semiconductor selloff are now being challenged by fresh supply disruptions and geopolitical risk.