WS #12976

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran conflict, with Trump stating on Fox News that US strikes will take place against Iran in response to attacks on US targets in Jordan, while also saying he will 'let them keep talking' — a mixed signal that maintains geopolitical risk. Separately, Iran is reported to have struck a deal for up to 400 Chinese air-defense missiles, further escalating tensions. The US Senate advanced a bill imposing new sanctions on Russia and Iran. Oil prices are rising on these developments, with Polymarket contracts showing active trading on WTI hitting $95 and ceasefire probabilities. Counter-signal: Trump's 'let them keep talking' comment suggests a diplomatic off-ramp may still be possible, which could dampen the bearish geopolitical thesis. On the earnings front, several notable beats/misses: Amphenol (APH) beat Q2 estimates and raised Q3 guidance above consensus; Johnson Controls (JCI) beat Q3 estimates and raised FY26 EPS guidance; Generac (GNRC) beat earnings on data center demand; Ford (F) beat Q2 adjusted EPS and raised FY26 guidance; Seagate (STX) hit record margins on AI storage demand. On the negative side, Wingstop (WING) reported a same-store sales decline of 7.5% worse than expected; Fiverr (FVRR) cut FY26 sales guidance; Avis Budget (CAR) missed Q2 estimates; BMW announced plans to cut up to 8,000 jobs. In M&A, Grant Thornton Advisors will acquire CBIZ (CBZ) for $5 billion in cash ($55/share, 54% premium). The narrative arc for the US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING but with potential de-escalation signals. The KOSPI circuit-breaker event (down 8-12.6% intraday) signals a leverage-driven liquidation spiral in South Korea, which could spill over to US-listed Korean ADRs like SK Hynix and Samsung. The Fed decision later today remains a key macro event with markets pricing in a 64% probability of no change.