WS #12977

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting that President Trump stated in a Fox News interview that the US will strike Iran in response to an Iranian ballistic missile attack on US forces in Jordan. This is corroborated by reports of US airstrikes in northwest Iran and Saudi Arabia joining US strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Oil prices are surging, with one source noting a 6.66% pre-market move. Counter-signal: Trump's previous 'let them keep talking' comment from the prior window suggests a potential diplomatic off-ramp, but the new threats of military action represent an escalation. Separately, Russia's central bank slashed its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0-1% and hiked inflation outlook to 6-7%, citing fuel shortages and production losses from Ukraine's strikes on refineries. On earnings, Procter & Gamble (PG) is down 3% pre-market after muted guidance, while Vertiv (VRT) is down 12% pre-market on mixed results (EPS beat, revenue miss). Upstart (UPST) announced a $4B forward flow agreement with Castlelake. The Fed decision later today remains a key macro event with Polymarket contracts showing active trading on rate hike probabilities. The narrative arc for the US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING with new military action threats.