WS #12978

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources (Seeking Alpha, CNBC) reporting President Trump's statement that the US will hit Iran hard in response to an attack on a US military base in Jordan. This is corroborated by Polymarket contracts on 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?' and 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?' indicating heightened geopolitical risk. Oil prices are surging, with CNBC reporting WTI crude up 6.9% to $89.88/barrel. Counter-signal: Polymarket also shows active trading on 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?' suggesting some market participants see a potential de-escalation, but the new threats of military action represent an escalation. The narrative arc for the US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING with new military action threats. Separately, the FOMC decision later today remains a key macro event, with Goldman Sachs forecasting no change on rates but noting the repricing of hike risk sets up a potential surprise. Polymarket contracts show active trading on rate hike probabilities. On earnings, Biogen raised FY2026 Adj EPS guidance to $15.85-$16.85 vs $12.83 estimate, a significant beat. Stanley Black & Decker raised FY2026 Adj EPS guidance to $5.20-$5.80 vs $5.37 estimate. Upstart announced a $4B forward flow agreement with Castlelake. Corning announced partnerships with Apple, Meta, Nvidia and Amazon supporting a plan to double revenue by 2030. DoorDash launched a new drone delivery program called DoorDash Air after receiving FAA Part 135 certification. Apple launched iPhone leasing in the US starting at $17.99/month. Tesla shorts have made $9.1 billion in 2026, making it the most profitable short trade so far this year. Cross-source corroboration: Fauci invoking Fifth Amendment at Senate hearing is reported by multiple sources (Axios, NBC, Politico, Stat News) but this is a political story with limited direct market impact. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries are reported by multiple sources (OSINT-Signals, Kyiv Independent), which could support oil prices. The Houthis considering transit fees for commercial ships in the Red Sea is a new development that could impact shipping and oil. Key developments to watch: Fed decision at 2PM ET, MSFT and META earnings after the close, and any further escalation in US-Iran tensions.