WS #12979

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources (Seeking Alpha, CNBC) reporting President Trump's statement that the US will hit Iran hard in response to an attack on a US military base in Jordan. This is corroborated by Polymarket contracts on 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?' and 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?' indicating heightened geopolitical risk. Oil prices are surging, with CNBC reporting WTI crude up 6.9% to $89.88/barrel. Counter-signal: Polymarket also shows active trading on 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?' suggesting some market participants see a potential de-escalation, but the new threats of military action represent an escalation. The narrative arc for the US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING with new military action threats. Separately, the FOMC decision later today remains a key macro event, with Goldman Sachs forecasting no change on rates but noting the repricing of hike risk sets up a potential surprise. Polymarket contracts show active trading on rate hike probabilities. On earnings, Biogen raised FY2026 Adj EPS guidance to $15.85-$16.85 vs $12.83 estimate, a significant beat. Stanley Black & Decker raised FY2026 Adj EPS guidance to $5.20-$5.80 vs $5.37 estimate. Corning announced partnerships with Apple, Meta, Nvidia and Amazon supporting a plan to double revenue by 2030. DoorDash launched a new drone delivery program called DoorDash Air after receiving FAA Part 135 certification. Qualcomm announced completion of Modular acquisition and a BMW deal. Intel beat its own guidance for the seventh consecutive time, with an upgrade to Buy. Options flow showed heavy activity in tech and semis, with a $32M put sweep on BE and significant flow in TSM, INTC, AMD, NVDA. Counter-signals: The US-Iran escalation is partially offset by active Polymarket trading on ceasefire contracts, suggesting some market participants see a potential de-escalation. The FOMC decision could surprise dovish if no hike is delivered, offsetting recent hawkish repricing. Goldman Sachs notes the repricing of hike risk sets up the largest non-cut meeting day surprise in almost 30 years. Carry-forward from previous: The FOMC decision, Biogen earnings beat, Stanley Black & Decker guidance raise, Corning partnerships, DoorDash drone program, and Tesla short thesis remain active. The US-Iran conflict narrative is escalating with new military action threats.